Stabilizing market dynamics for shippers could be curtailed by overcapacity and network complexity risks, logistics experts said.

ore favorable freight market conditions won’t guarantee smooth sailing for logistics managers in 2026. 

Transportation capacity is readily available and shipper-friendly contract rates are within reach for companies with parcel, ocean, air cargo, rail and trucking needs. However, uncertainty driven by tariffs, added fees and service risks may pose hurdles for cargo shipping across all modes.

So what does that mean for logistics managers? Supply Chain Dive spoke to several industry experts to get a 2026 market outlook and to learn how shippers can prepare for whatever comes their way. Here are the trends to watch across each freight mode.

1. Last-mile delivery costs poised to climb further

Shippers are expected to feel the sting of escalating last-mile delivery rates in 2026 as additional rate and surcharge increases from FedEx and UPS take hold.

The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index projects the Q1 ground parcel rate per package will jump even further after reaching record levels in Q4 2025. Prices during the quarter are expected to be 38.9% higher than the index’s January 2018 baseline, a 5.4% year-over-year increase.

However, shippers still have an opportunity to secure better rates during carrier negotiations as delivery providers fight for volume, experts said.

2. Ocean shipping capacity to rise

In 2026, ocean shippers will be in a good position for contract rate negotiations, which typically occur between March and May.

Although rates may fluctuate slightly due to standard practices — for instance, carriers using blank sailings to manage capacity — rates will not be a concern for shippers. Instead, shippers will have to focus on schedule reliability.

3. Air cargo flows will shift as network complexity rises

Air cargo shippers will have to navigate operational volatility in 2026 as networks become increasingly complex due to fluctuating trade policies, geopolitics, export controls and other risks.

Since regional disruptions can now have a global impact, air cargo demand will be redirected, resulting in multi-hub networks over linear alternatives.

Still, after years of extreme volatility, the air cargo market has left recovery mode and generally stabilized, according to industry experts.

As of now, air freight growth is forecast to be in the low single digits in 2026.

4. Rail to normalize as potential UP-NS merger looms

Overall, rail freight is expected to face a more normalized environment in 2026. Currently, industrial production, inventory management and energy markets are shaping rail volumes, 

This year, rail shippers should focus on planning and network alignment. Integrating rail into longer-term logistics and inventory plans will also help shippers be better positioned versus those relying on short-term adjustments.

5. Trucking to hinge on carrier survivability, reliable capacity

In 2026, shippers will be less interested in chasing rock bottom trucking rates and instead prioritize reliable capacity.

Because of this, carrier survivability is becoming a growing concern as margins get slimmer and inflation rises. Eventually, the market will face the question of whether carriers can provide needed capacity at committed rates. In turn, shippers aren’t buying a discount, they are buying risk.

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